What does 5% growth mean?
McKinsey's 2026 model projects 5% annual growth through 2030—slower than the 7% seen from 2022 to 2024, but still supported by demand and geographic expansion.
This is a model-based market outlook, not a sales guarantee for an individual brand. Results vary by category, tier, country, and channel.
1. There is more than one growth market
McKinsey expects strong growth in Latin America and Southeast and Central Asia, while 51% of surveyed executives prioritized North American expansion. Fast market growth and industry entry priorities are not always the same.
2. Connect customer, price, and channel
A country name alone cannot define a product specification. Identify the customer, price tier, first channel, and hero SKU together.
- Target customer's primary concern
- Mass, masstige, or prestige tier
- Marketplace, social commerce, or specialty retail
- Hero product for trial and SKU for replenishment
3. Localization begins with the specification
Climate, routines, fragrance preference, skin tones, size expectations, and labeling requirements differ. Review sensory design, shades, directions, and packaging information for the target market.
4. Do not open every market at once
Country-specific labeling, compliance, logistics, and channel operations increase inventory and execution risk. Learn in one priority market before expanding to adjacent ones.
The first sentence for the brief
Replace 'a global product' with a precise statement such as 'a 30 mL daily serum for efficacy- and value-comparing customers shopping online in the United States.' Broad growth forecasts become useful only after the brief becomes specific.
Sources
- From aisle to algorithm: The beauty categories, channels, and concepts shaping 2030 growth — McKinsey & Company, 2026-06-18
- A close look at the global beauty industry in 2025 — McKinsey & Company, 2025-08-28
For more context, see the product development guide and MOQ 1,000 guide.